para las primas...

...aca va la apuesta del experto carpetbagger para el domingo en la noche:
Best Picture: “Crash”
No particular reason. A whim. A flyer. Maybe the fact that he talked to so many Academy members who said “Brokeback” would win, but few who seemed to be indicating that they actually voted for it.
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
For the obvious reasons. A stand-out performance in a standout year.
Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon
Felicity Huffman would be his choice, but the Bagger senses that Hollywood wants to renew its pool of A-List “It” Girls.
Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney
Wide-open race. Just a guess. One way to get a Big Star to the mic besides having him present an award.
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz
Amy Adams could get by her if people actually saw “Junebug,” as could Michelle Williams if “Brokeback Mountain” turns into a runaway horse, but Ms. Weisz’s performance is one everyone remembers.
Best Director: Ang Lee
A lock. For all the obvious reasons. A director in the best sense of the term, a credit to the industry, a visionary who can make any kind of movie he finds himself imagining.
Best Original Screenplay: “Crash”
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco
Conventional wisdom plus LA pixie dust.
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Brokeback Mountain”
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
They did a great job. So did Dan Futterman. But a lot more people loved “Brokeback” than saw “Capote.”
Best Animated Film: “Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
The Bagger found “Wallace” to be a bit on the slow side, but the other choices are too idiosyncratic to appeal to the Academy’s blunt animated sensibilities.
Best Foreign Film: “Tsotsi”
Tough to spell and lovely to behold.
Best Documentary: “Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room”
Sometimes, big-box office like “Penguins” can work against a nominee. In a very political year, why not a very political doc?
Best Original Score: “Brokeback Mountain”
Gustavo Santaolalla
Does John Williams really need to end up with a baker’s dozen Oscars by the time he is done? Why not let someone who turned a guitar into an orchestra win?
Best Original Song: “Crash”
“In the Deep” - Kathleen “Bird” York and Michael Becker
Dolly would be jolly and Three 6 would be a trip, but the Academy likes its songs anthemic and shimmering.
Best Cinematography: “Brokeback Mountain”
Rodrigo Prieto
“Memoirs of a Geisha”? Maybe. But the first 30 minutes of the wildest west are tough to resist.
Costume Design: “Memoirs of a Geisha”
Token award granted on merit, if that’s possible.
Film Editing: “Crash”
Hughes Winborne
Helped turn a TV movie into a film.
Makeup: “The Chronicles of Narnia: the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe”
Making Russell Crowe look like a palooka is no great shakes, so no dice for “Cinderella Man,” and “Star Wars” Oscar days now reside in a galaxy far, far away.
Sound Editing: “King Kong”
Sound Mixing: “King Kong”
Keeping the roars of Kong and all those dinosaurs apart must have been a nightmare.
Visual Effects: “King Kong”
As opposed to what?
Short Animated Film: “9″
Played rock-paper-scissors with my 9-year-old to winnow down to this choice. Weigh accordingly.
Short Film Live Action: “Six Shooter”
This choice was ripped off from the consensus at Gurus of Gold. Ashamed to say the Bagger never saw one of the nominees, although he did read about “Six Shooter” in the New Yorker this week.